Dynamic Configuration of the Business Model of Blockchain-Based Retail Platforms: A Scenario-Based Approach to Resilience under Deep Uncertainty

Ammaneh Sadat  Bokaei; Mohammad Reza Sanaei; Fatemeh  Saghafi

Authors

Ammaneh Sadat Bokaei Department of IT management, QA.C., Islamic Azad university , Qazvin, Iran Author https://orcid.org/0009-0006-5037-6729
Mohammad Reza Sanaei Department of Information Technology Management, Qa.C., Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran Corresponding author https://orcid.org/0009-0007-1653-0718
Fatemeh Saghafi Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Management, School of Industrial Management and Technology, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran Author https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4843-6885

Keywords:

Blockchain Retail Platforms, Business Model Configuration, Scenario Planning, Deep Uncertainty, Business Model Resilience, Digital Transformation, Platform Governance

Abstract

This study aimed to develop a dynamic, scenario-based configuration model for blockchain-based retail platform business models by identifying robust, adaptive, and contingent components that enhance resilience under conditions of deep uncertainty. This applied exploratory mixed-method study was conducted with 36 experts from Tehran selected through purposive criterion-based sampling from the fields of blockchain technology, fintech, retail and e-commerce, platform strategy, technology management, and regulatory policy. Data were collected using semi-structured expert elicitation, an environmental uncertainty assessment questionnaire, a cross-impact assessment matrix, a scenario-construction instrument, and a business model configuration and resilience assessment questionnaire. Data analysis combined directed thematic coding, impact–uncertainty analysis, cross-impact structural analysis, scenario consistency assessment, cross-scenario comparison, and sensitivity analysis to identify critical uncertainties and determine appropriate business model configurations across alternative futures. Regulatory orientation obtained the highest impact–uncertainty score (22.56), followed by blockchain and payment interoperability (20.59), consumer and merchant trust (20.09), and blockchain infrastructure maturity (19.10). Cross-impact analysis identified regulatory orientation as the strongest driving variable, with a direct influence score of 31 and an indirect influence score of 35, while blockchain infrastructure maturity was the second major driver. Four internally coherent scenarios were derived: Institutionalized Blockchain Ecosystem, Regulated Fragmentation, Technological Expansion under Institutional Ambiguity, and Constrained and Distrusted Ecosystem. Their respective resilience scores were 4.63, 4.14, 4.32, and 3.88. Cybersecurity, modular architecture, data integrity, payment redundancy, and continuous monitoring emerged as robust cross-scenario elements, whereas governance, blockchain depth, payment mechanisms, partner structures, and smart-contract intensity were identified as adaptive components. Resilience in blockchain-based retail platforms depends not on maximizing blockchain adoption, but on preserving a robust strategic core while dynamically reconfiguring governance, technological architecture, partnerships, payments, and investment commitments in response to evolving regulatory and technological conditions.

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